Even if there is some worst situation, the Russians simply do not have enough manpower and equipment.
Russian troops want to take Severodonetsk “at any price”. At the same time, the occupation of the city will be a “political success” for Russia, not a strategic one.
About it in an interview L.B. ua said Nikolai Beleskov, an analyst at the National Institute for Strategic Studies.
“If we are talking about the conduct of hostilities, then, as I understand it, the logic of holding on to Severodonetsk is as follows: since the Russians will attack precisely there, then this is our attempt to exhaust the Russians there to the maximum, relying on the Azot complex, on the urbanized area, on the fact that the Russians need, one way or another, to enter into a contact battle, even with the support of artillery,” the analyst said.
On the other hand, even if there is some kind of worst situation, the Russians simply do not have enough manpower and equipment, Beleskov believes.
“Even the Americans admitted that they lost up to a third of their tanks, which is a lot. They don’t have enough forces. Those 220,000 who are fighting directly are very few in order to carry out serious offensive operations when you don’t push, but you break through the defenses and surround. Even if the Russians take control of Severodonetsk, it will be more of a political success,” Beleskov replied.
At the same time, the expert emphasized that the enemy’s capture of Severodonetsk would not have a military, strategic success: “I don’t like it when they write about this city as a strategic one. What is strategic in it militarily? There will be some kind of hole where the Russians should to send an additional 100,000, which they don’t have. They just don’t have them: to break through our line of defense, exhaust us, throw in another 100,000 and make a big cauldron.”
“That is, our military is trying to use the fact that they will try to take Severodonetsk and, as a result, they will throw everything that is the most combat-ready there, even removing it from other sectors of the front and transferring it there. This is such a frontal cut from two sides. Perhaps , from a military point of view, it would really be worth leaving, but, on the other hand, we can go so far,” the analyst added.
War in Ukraine: current data
Russia has focused all its efforts on the capture of Donbass. Currently, fierce battles for Severodonetsk continue. Enemy coming soon can capture Lysichanskexperts from ISW warn.
At the same time, in the area of Belogorovka, the invaders refused to force the Seversky Donetsfearing new large losses in equipment and manpower.
June 21 the enemy again attacked the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Slavic directionand in the Kharkiv region is trying to keep the Ukrainian forces and prevent them from reaching the Russian border.
According to the head of the Center for Military Legal Research Alexander Musienko, Russia’s goals is the capture of Severodonetsk, a campaign from the south to Lysichansk and movement from Popasnaya with further control over the Lysichansk-Bakhmut highway.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson believes that Russia may run out of resources in the battles in the Donbass.