As of 10:49 am, the US dollar continued to decline and ended up at 62.86 rubles. Meanwhile, the euro exchange rate at 10:53 fell to 65.16 rubles.
After the start of the Russian military special operation in Ukraine, the ruble began to fall sharply against the dollar and reached its lowest point on March 11 – 120.38 rubles. After that, the Russian currency, despite the new sanctions of the West, began to win back positions. So, during trading on the Moscow Exchange on April 7, it strengthened to 75 rubles per dollar for the first time since the beginning of February. At auction on April 8, the dollar was already worth less than 75 rubles, and the euro fell to 79.98 rubles for the first time since July 13, 2020.
The Russian ruble continued to strengthen throughout April and early May. According to experts interviewed by RTVI, the depreciation of the European and American currencies affect restrictions imposed by the Bank of Russia on many financial transactions, as well as the sale of 80% of the proceeds of exporters, the decision to transfer payments for gas supplies to “unfriendly” countries into rubles and a reduction in imports.
Doctor of Economic Sciences Yakov Mirkin told RTVI that he considers the current strengthening of the ruble a temporary phenomenon. The state of the Russian economy, he said, points to a “weakening game” in the long term.
Mirkin noted that only the Central Bank knows whether the ruble exchange rate is held administratively or is formed by supply and demand on the free market. However, one can draw conclusions about this based on the gap between the official exchange rate and the black market rate, which appeared immediately after the introduction of restrictions. This gap indicates that in fact the demand for the currency is greater, and the ruble is weaker than it might seem at the exchange rate, Mirkin said.
- In the coming month, the majority of Russians (53%) expect the ruble to fall against foreign currencies, should from monitoring conducted at the end of April by the analytical center of the National Agency for Financial Research (NAFI). Another 31% of respondents expect the national currency to strengthen, and 16% believe that the current exchange rate will remain. As NAFI pointed out, 52% of survey participants continue to monitor fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate, and this indicator has remained unchanged since March.
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