Russia is facing a record decline in oil production, according to the IEA

World oil production in April decreased by 710 thousand barrels per day compared to March. This is stated in the May report of the IEA.

Russian oil production IEA

“Supplies from Russia fell by about 1 million barrels per day in April, which led to a decrease in world supply by 710 thousand barrels per day, to 98.1 million barrels per day,” — to be specified in a report by the International Energy Agency.

“While this is less than we expected last month, Russia’s total oil and condensate production fell by 960,000 bpd compared to March, to 10.4 million bpd, the lowest since November 2020. Oil production alone fell by 900,000 bpd to 9.1 million bpd. This is 1.3 million barrels per day below the target level for the OPEC+ deal,” the IEA said in a report.

“Having held at a fairly stable level in March, oil production in Russia fell in April. Refineries in the country were processing less oil due to a slowdown in exports of petroleum products and a decline in domestic demand caused by a wave of Western sanctions, the IEA explains. “If this is confirmed, the average annual oil production will fall to 9.6 million barrels per day, such a level was last observed in 2004.”


Not only the IEA is waiting for a decrease in production in Russia

It should be noted that earlier the US Department of Energy downgraded Russian Oil and Condensate Production Outlook: “Russian liquid hydrocarbon production in the May STEO report is expected to average 10 mb/d in 2022, 0.4 mb/d less than we forecast in April” .

“Our forecast for Russian production in 2023 is 9.1 million barrels per day, which is 0.6 million barrels per day less than the April estimate,” the EIA said. It is noted that the lowering of the forecast is associated with a sharper drop in oil production in Russia in April than previously expected.

In addition, the forecast for average oil production in the United States for the current year was reduced by 10,000 barrels to 11.91 million barrels per day. And in 2023 it will be lowered by the same 10 thousand barrels to 12.85 million barrels per day. In April, the Ministry of Energy lowered its oil production forecast for 2022 to 12.01 million barrels per day, and for 2023 to 12.95 million barrels per day. The estimate of oil production last year was kept at 11.19 million barrels per day. :///

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