There is still hope that during the year they will clarify the issues of a truce, but not peace, the military believes.
There are three main scenarios for the development of events in the war Russia against Ukraine.
About it in an interview Obozrevatel said the former Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Igor Romanenko.
The first scenario is the occupation of the entire Donbass by the enemy. Romanenko stressed that the Russian army concentrated all its efforts on capturing the region.
“Complete capture of the Lugansk region, then Donetsk. The enemy uses a costly force, he stops at nothing. Russia can mobilize about 17 million, and we are about 2 million. There is a difference. Yes, there is such a danger. But it all depends on how quickly and massively we will be assisted in heavy weapons,” the military said.
And by that time, the Ukrainian army should defend itself with the available forces, the general added: “The enemy still cannot capture Severodonetsk, there is also Lisichansk, although it delivers an asymmetrical strike from Izyum.”
At the same time, the military believes that if the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are equalized, they will defend the defense, and within a year the issue of a truce, but not peace, will be clarified.
“Russia will not agree to some conditions, Ukraine will not agree to some. It is in this case that the second option can be realized,” Romanenko said.
Under the third option, Russia could reconsider its military objectives and declare “victory”.
“When they give us a lot of help quickly enough, our military potential will exceed the Russian one, and we will start to beat the enemy in the tail and mane. In this case, they will agree to what they would not agree to under other circumstances. And how can Russia justify this “We are not interested,” Romanenko said.
War in Ukraine: current data
Russia has focused all its efforts on the capture of Donbass. Currently, fierce battles for Severodonetsk continue. Enemy coming soon can capture Lysichanskexperts from ISW warn.
At the same time, in the area of Belogorovka, the invaders refused to force the Seversky Donetsfearing new large losses in equipment and manpower.
June 21 the enemy again attacked the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Slavic directionand in the Kharkiv region is trying to keep the Ukrainian forces and prevent them from reaching the Russian border.
According to the head of the Center for Military Legal Research Alexander Musienko, Russia’s goals is the capture of Severodonetsk, a campaign from the south to Lysichansk and movement from Popasnaya with further control over the Lysichansk-Bakhmut highway.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson believes that Russia may run out of resources in the battles in the Donbass.