Military expert and reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleg Zhdanov explained that Belarus can really quickly move its troops to the borders of Ukrainebut not overnight. On my own YouTube channel he assessed the likelihood of such a rapid onset of RB.
“They keep six battalion tactical groups (BTGs) along the border. We assume that they can deploy up to 20-25 BTGs. If they rotate 6 battalion tactical groups for 5-6 days, then moving 20 BTGs, even in a combined way (this means that wheeled vehicles will go on the roads, and caterpillar vehicles on the railroad),” he explained.
The expert notes that our intelligence is monitoring the Belarusian threat, so we will know immediately when the Belarusian troops are activated.
“Secondly, this is a massive movement of equipment. Of course, our intelligence will monitor this, and we will immediately know that the equipment of the Belarusian army has begun to actively move. You see, the Russian army has begun to move, and we already know where the columns are going what kind of columns, how many of them, what equipment is in these columns and in what directions they are moving. As for Belarus, everything is the same – intelligence is working. Everything will be known to it immediately,” the expert summed up.
Recall, the former commander of US troops in Europe, an expert at the Washington Center for European Policy Analysis, retired General Ben Hodges considers it unlikely the fact that the Russians will again dare to launch a ground attack on Ukraine from the territory of Belarus, including closer to winter.
The Kremlin decided that the Belarusian military should take a direct part in the war. Lukashenka is trying to refrain from this step. But the room for maneuver is limited. About Putin’s goals, risks for Lukashenka and what Western countries need to do – read the article Vladimir Kravchenko “Will Lukashenka’s troops invade Ukraine?” in ZN.UA.