The only option that is relatively minimal in relation to possible losses for the Armed Forces of Belarus is the conduct of reconnaissance, sabotage activities.
Number and level of combat capability Belarusian troops clearly not enough to carry out a large-scale offensive against the northern regions of Ukraine.
This was stated by a military expert from Belarus Yagor Lebyadok, writes RBC-Ukraine.
Conscripts serve in all brigades of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus. Their death on foreign territory will cause discontent within the country, Lebyadok noted. It is possible to make consolidated units from contract soldiers, but this is still not enough, the interlocutor specified.
“If we talk about independent actions of the Belarusian Armed Forces in the offensive against Ukraine, then the only option that is relatively minimal in relation to possible losses for the Belarusian Armed Forces is to conduct reconnaissance, sabotage activities and conduct special operations by the SOF forces on the territory of Ukraine,” Lebyadok suggested.
First of all, we are talking about blocking the channels for the supply of foreign weapons through the western regions. To carry out such an operation, Lukashenka’s army can advance in the direction of Volyn or Rivne region. True, there are big doubts that these tasks are feasible for the Belarusian troops.
“Lukashenko is being forced to fight. The military-political tasks that Putin sets for him are hardly realistic if he is really given the function of cutting off any communications. Most likely, the main task is to open a second front, which will lead to shackling and distraction of part of our troops, forces and means,” the coordinator of the Information Resistance group, Colonel Konstantin Mashovets, explained to the publication.
Lebyadok believes that the activity of the military RB is, on the one hand, containment maneuvers. On the other hand, preparation for a possible defense.
“Since the picture of the world of the military-political leadership of Belarus really suggests that they will be attacked by Ukraine or NATO troops from the territory of Ukraine – this is not a propaganda stamp, but their real perception of the world, then the large-scale actions of the Belarusian troops in the southern direction in such a paradigm of thinking are demonstrative actions,” he said.
So the armed forces of the Republic of Belarus want to show that in the event of an attack, they will respond, the interlocutor admitted. At the same time, he does not rule out that defensive exercises can in many ways be used to work out an offensive. Ukrainian experts tend to this version.
Recall, by data Ministry of Internal Affairs, there are 4,000 servicemen of the Republic of Belarus on the border with Ukraine. This amount is not enough to organize an attack in any direction.
At the Ministry of Defense on June 21 reportedthat they do not see signs of preparation for the offensive of the army of Belarus.
From June 22 to July 1 in the Gomel region last “mobilization exercises”.