EIA lowers forecast for oil production and demand in the world

The US Department of Energy has lowered its forecast for oil demand in the world. This follows from the EIA’s monthly short-term forecast.

US global oil market forecast

“According to our estimates, global oil consumption will average 99.6 million barrels per day in 2022, which is 2.2 million more than in 2021. We have revised down our forecast for global oil consumption in 2022 by 0.2 million barrels per day compared to the April forecast… We forecast that global oil consumption will increase by 1.9 million barrels per day in 2023 and will average .5 million barrels per day, ”- reported in a report from the Energy Information Administration.

Analysts at the Ministry of Energy note that the decline in the forecast for oil consumption this year is mainly due to a downward revision in demand growth rates in China and the United States. In addition, it is clarified that, according to estimates, in April the world consumed 97.4 million barrels of oil per day, which is an increase of 2.1 million barrels in annual terms.

 

Reduced forecast for oil production in Russia and the United States

At the same time, the US Department of Energy lowered its forecast for mining oil and condensate in Russia: “Russian liquids production in the May STEO report is expected to average 10 mb/d in 2022, down 0.4 mb/d from our forecast in April.”

“Our forecast for Russian production in 2023 is 9.1 million barrels per day, which is 0.6 million barrels per day less than the April estimate,” the EIA said. It is noted that the lowering of the forecast is associated with a sharper drop in oil production in Russia in April than previously expected.

In addition, the forecast for average oil production in the country for the current year was reduced by 10,000 barrels to 11.91 million barrels per day. And in 2023, it will be lowered by the same 10 thousand barrels to 12.85 million barrels per day.

In April, the Ministry of Energy lowered its oil production forecast for 2022 to 12.01 million barrels per day, and for 2023 to 12.95 million barrels per day. The estimate of oil production last year was kept at 11.19 million barrels per day. :///

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