The hypothetical scenario is when the Kremlin fighters again move to the Kyiv or Chernihiv regions, and the Belarusians go to the western regions.
Most of the interviewed experts believe that Belarus may enter the war if the Russian army returns to the Ukrainian northern borders.
Writes about it RBC-Ukraine.
The hypothetical scenario is when the Kremlin fighters again move to the Kyiv or Chernihiv regions, and the Belarusians go to the western regions. Or the armies of the Republic of Belarus will assign the function of covering the rear of the Russian troops.
“At the moment, I would say that the actions of the Belarusian Armed Forces against Ukraine are possible only in the event of a re-start of hostilities by Russian troops to capture Kyiv or in the event of a serious defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the south, due to which there will be no serious forces left in the north and this can be used to open a second front in order to defeat Ukraine as soon as possible,” military expert from Belarus Yagor Lebyadok admitted.
A small part of Russian militants is still on the territory of the republic. But now there are definitely not enough of them to break through the northern borders. It should not be ruled out that in case of “successes” in the Donbass, the Kremlin can release part of its forces and transfer them to strengthen its grouping in Belarus. But the defense of all the northern regions of Ukraine is already far from being at the level at which it was before February 24.
In addition, the entire section of the border between Ukraine and Belarus is very difficult in terms of conducting any ground operation, says military analyst Colonel Sergei Grabsky. This requires a huge amount of troops and equipment.
“So far, we do not see such a concentration of forces and means that would indicate that a ground attack can be carried out. By the way, the results of the so-called Kyiv and Chernigov operation of the Russian troops proved that they cannot carry out an attack in that direction by ground forces “, Grabsky explained to the publication.
At the same time, he draws attention to another potential risk coming from Belarus. The arrival of Russian aircraft was recorded at the Baranovichi airfield. This means that Russia may increase the intensity of air strikes against Ukraine.
Recall, by data Ministry of Internal Affairs, there are 4,000 servicemen of the Republic of Belarus on the border with Ukraine. This amount is not enough to organize an attack in any direction.
At the Ministry of Defense on June 21 reportedthat they do not see signs of preparation for the offensive of the army of Belarus.