“$20k per coin or less.” What’s next for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies

Further down

The price of bitcoin has been declining since the end of March, when its price was $48,000, and although there are occasional bounces (on May 12, the rate fell to $27,000 and then rose to $29.58,000), the main rate is still bearish. This is especially evident against the background of the indicator six months ago, when the first cryptocurrency reached a historical maximum of $69,000.

Along with bitcoin, the largest altcoins are also declining. Ethereum updated its price low since the summer of 2021 and during the day on May 12 reached $1.8 thousand, the price of Binance Coin fell by 26%, XRP and Solana quotes fell by 28% and 35%, respectively. At the moment, the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market decreased by 18.5%, which corresponds to the level of $1.2 trillion.

As writes Forbes, against the background of the fall of the crypto market over the past two months, the positions of billionaires investing in digital currencies have noticeably shaken. So, since March 11, the founder and head of the Binance cryptocurrency exchange, Changpeng Zhao, has lost $ 37 billion, the founder and head of FTX Sam Bankman-Fried – $ 3 billion, and now his fortune is estimated at $ 21 billion, the head of Coinbase Brian Armstrong – $ 4.4 billion. All estimates approximate due to the fact that the market is highly volatile and fluctuations in one day can be tens of percent.

Bear market for a long time

Pessimistic moods dominate in the expert community, and the figure of $20,000 per bitcoin is often heard, which corresponds to a drop of 71% from the historical maximum recorded in November 2021. In particular, analyst and investor Ali Martinez points to two previous similar “breakouts” of the trend line, when the coin lost 37.67% and 41.32%, respectively. This time, he expects a fall of 40.59%, that is, just to $20,000. Only reaching the support level of $36,000 will break the bearish trend, which Martinez does not expect.

“Any recovery will be capped at $30,000, at which 390,000 addresses will most likely try to close positions without loss on the 505,000 previously purchased BTC. It’s also worth noting that a close below #26.5k means BTC has room to move further down towards $22k-$20k,” Martinez wrote at the end of the day on May 12.

The fact that the bearish trend has been established for a long time, He speaks and head of the analytical department of AMarkets Artem Deev. As the expert explained in an interview with RBC, the level of “$20 thousand per coin or lower” is a prospect for the entire second quarter, and there are no factors for significant growth, and even in the event of a technical rebound in the rate, a further decline should be expected.

As a result of trading on May 11, BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov said that $29,000 is an important support level, breaking through which opens the way to $20,000. This happened already on the 12th.

“Bitcoin is unlikely to be able to move to a steady growth after such a blow, at best, in the next month it will be able to return to a level above $30,000. At the same time, I do not exclude a negative scenario, according to which BTC will sink another couple of thousand to $22,000.” , — explained the director of Alfacash Nikita Soshnikov.

According to him, bitcoin is unlikely to be able to go below $20,000 — it will be bought out by those who are waiting for the rate to fall to increase their positions,” told he is RBC.

On excitement and faith

Analysts from the conservative flank continue to say that cryptocurrencies still have no fundamental value, and their quotes are determined only by investors’ faith in future growth.

“The fact is that there is absolutely nothing behind bitcoin, only the psychology of the consumer, the hope of the crowd that it will rise in price for the rest of its life, is an absolutely inflated value. People, seeing that its rate was rising, tried to mine something or buy from each other, but since bitcoin has no support other than this psychology, sooner or later it had to end, in fact, it ended, ” declared publication Lenta.ru candidate of economic sciences Mikhail Belyaev.

“Now all this foam is gone, people have realized that this is all a purely psychological game, so the rate began to fall: it was 60 thousand dollars at its peak – now it has fallen to 27,” Belyaev insists.

With a colleague solidarity RANEPA Associate Professor Nikolai Kulbaka, who believes that the first and most famous cryptocurrency has not yet managed to become a reliable asset.

“Bitcoin is a very peculiar currency. In fact, its course depends on how much people believe in it. A similar asset, for example, is gold. It is expensive precisely because people believe that it should be expensive. Bitcoin fluctuations are possible. It is possible that this cryptocurrency will fall more due to a drop in faith in it. It is possible that bitcoin will rise later, because someone will believe in it more than now. In any case, this is a very unreliable asset,” Kulbaka says.

Ephemerality of stablecoins

Until recently, the so-called stablecoins, that is, stablecoins, the exchange rate of which is pegged to fiat currencies, primarily to the dollar, were considered as a symbol of reliability in the crypto market. In early May, the two main stablecoins – USDT and UST – started Problems. The first one on May 12 showed a decrease to the level of $0.95 per coin, although its very idea is a one-for-one exchange for the dollar. The second on May 11 fell to $0.2, and the associated altcoin LUNA collapsed by 95%. Co-founder of the ENCRY Foundation Roman Nekrasov in an interview with RBC predicted collapse of all stablecoins.

“We saw volatility in the stablecoin market, which in itself is an oxymoron – stablecoins are called that because they are stable, stable. As practice has shown, it was only a name, ”he stated.

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